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کاربرد روش ناحیه بندی بر اساس بوم شناسی زراعی برای تعیین خلاء عملکرد محصول گندم آبی در گروه های اقلیمی ایران
عنوان (انگلیسی): application of regionalism method based cropped ecology for determining production vacuity of irrigated wheat yield in the climate groups of Iran
نشریه: پژوهش آب ايران
شماره: پژوهش آب ايران (دوره: ۱۰، شماره: ۳)
نویسنده: وروانی، هادی ، مردیان، مهدی ، گنجی خرم دل، ناصر ، فرهادی بانسوله، بهمن
کلیدواژه‌ها : تحلیل عاملی و خوشه¬ای ، داده¬های هواشناسی ، راندمان محصول گندم ، تغییرات اقلیمی
کلیدواژه‌ها (انگلیسی): Wheat production efficiency , Climate changes , Factor and cluster analysis , Meteorological data
چکیده:

تولید پتانسیل محصول زراعی از پارامترهایی است که با محاسبه آن می¬توان خلاء عملکرد را به دست آورد و بر اساس عوامل تأثیرگذار در تولید،‏ به مدیریت منابع آب و خاک پرداخت. در این تحقیق با هدف محاسبه تولید پتانسیل گندم آبی در 30 مرکز استانی کشور،‏ ابتدا با استفاده از تحلیل عاملی و خوشه¬ای و با در نظر گرفتن 9 پارامتر اقلیمی،‏ مراکز استانی در چهار گروه طبقه¬بندی شدند. سپس با استفاده از روش ناحیه¬بندی بر اساس بوم¬شناسی زراعی،‏ تولید پتانسیل محصول و خلاء عملکرد تعیین شد. بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده،‏ روش مذکور در مناطق گرم خشک و کم¬بارش کشور نتوانست تولید پتانسیل محصول را برآورد کند؛ اما در مناطق نیمه¬خشک تا مرطوب کشور،‏ خلاء عملکرد مشاهده شد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که در بین عوامل اقلیمی،‏ مدل بیشترین حساسیت را نسبت به ميانگين درجه حرارت دارد. اين امر سبب شده تا کمترین خلاء عملكرد در گروه¬های اقلیمی مرطوب کم¬بارش و خشک با 15- و 5‎/27- درصد دیده شود. همچنین وجود اقلیم معتدله در گروه اقلیمی پربارش کشور باعث رشد بیشتر گونه¬ها و طولانی¬تر شدن فصل رشد گردیده که این امر باعث اختلاف بین عملکرد متوسط و عملکرد پتانسیل شده است و خلاء عملكرد در استان¬های ساحلی شمالی کشور را به 8‎/55- درصد رسانده است.

چکیده (انگلیسی):

Yield production potential is a parameter that can be achieved for determination the production vacuity and on based affective factors in production can be useable to water and soil management. With attention to limitations in agricultural programs for increase in wheat production, applying a predictive model of yield potential rate could be affective in determine of management of production on based various parameters including climate factors. A suitable model for this goal is regionalism method based cropped ecology which is assumed the climatic requirements is prepared and water, nutrients, salinity, pests and diseases does not effect on growth and yield potential. In this study, with goal the estimation of yield production potential in 30 provinces center in Iran, firstly using factor and cluster analysis and with nine climate factors, the stations was classified. Climate data was collected for a period 30 years to 2010 from synoptic station of provinces center. Also average values of actual production for winter wheat in each province were collected from data and information technology site of Ministry of Agriculture - Jahad. Then was determined the potential production and production vacuity (kilograms per hectare) using the regionalism method based cropped ecology.
According to the percentage of variance and special values of effective factors, KMO value was equal to 0.598 that four climatic parameters including mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation were selected in grouping process. So separated nine provinces in dry climate including: Birjand, Kerman, Yazd, Zahedan, Qom, Isfahan, Shiraz, Tehran and Semnan. In semi-arid- semi humid climate there is 15 provinces incuding: Mashhad, Qazvin, Bojnoord, Sanandaj, Kermanshah, Tabriz, Arak, Shahrekord, Zanjan, Hamedan, Orumieh, Ilam, Khorramabad, Yasooj and Ardebil. Three provinces are in humid with low precipitation climate including: Busheher, Bandarabbas and Ahvaz. Also three provinces are in humid rainy climate including: Rasht, Sari and Gorgan. Then, the estimated values of parameters in regionalism method based cropped ecology and actual and potential of wheat yield was determined in four regional groups. Also percentage of production vacuity between actual and potential yield from lack climatic requirements for each group was determined.
As a result, regionalism method based cropped ecology in arid low precipitation regions of the country could not estimate potential production of wheat yield. In region with semi-arid- semi humid climate, the lowest and highest yield vacuity percent with 30.9 and 53.5 is in the Ardebil and Ilam stations, respectively. Also the average percentage of yield vacuity in this group is 43.2 percent. In regions with arid climate, the minimum and maximum of yield vacuity percentage is in the Semnan and Zahedan stations with 10.2 and 52.1 percent, respectively. Also the average percentage of yield vacuity in this group is 27.5 percent. In humid rainy regions that are including station of the northern coast, Iran, the percentage of production vacuity is very high. In this group, the maximum vacuum is in the Rasht station with 68.9 percent and the minimum vacuum is in the Gorgan station with 41.2 percent. Also the average percentage of yield vacuity in this group is 55.8 percent. Among the four regional groups, in terms of required climatic parameters, the maximum vacuum is in humid rainy regions and the lowest yield vacuity is related to low precipitation humid climate. Furthermore, among 30 provinces that studied, the Rasht station from humid rainy regions has highest yield vacuum and the Semnan station from dry regions has lowest yield vacuum. The results of factor analysis showed that temperature is important for dividing of provincial climate. Also results showed that model from between the climatic factors, has the greatest sensitivity to average temperature. This has caused that the lowest yield vacuum be in regions with low precipitation and dry climates wit 15 and 27.5 percent, respectively. Also moderate climate in rainy climate condition is caused on high growing and longer season of growth for the most species. This is a cause that has difference between yield average productions with yield potential production and has been production vacuum average in the country's northern coastal provinces equal to 55.8 percent. Conciliation of results represented that regionalism method based cropped ecology is one of the appropriate tools for predicting wheat yield and determining yield vacuity in different climatic regions.
Crop potential production is a factor that with estimation it will can determined operation vacuity and on based affective factors in production can be paid to water and soil management. In this research, to aim the estimation of potential production of irrigated wheat in 30 province center of Iran, firstly using factor and cluster analysis and with nine climate factors, was classified the stations in four groups. Then using regionalism method based cropped ecology, was estimated the potential production and operation vacuity. According to results, the method couldn’t be significant for prediction the potential production in arid-hot and low-precipitation areas, but was observed the operation vacuity in semi-arid and wet areas. Also results showed the model has the most sensitivity to temperature average. Therefore the lowest production vacuity is in low-precipitation humidity and arid groups with -15% and -27.5%, respectively. Also the existence of moderate climate in high-precipitation area is obvious for better and longer grow, that this is a reason for difference between average and potential production and operation vacuity have been -55.8% in north coastal provinces.

فایل مقاله : ‏123 دریافت تاكنون
صاحب امتیاز:
دانشگاه شهرکرد
مدیر مسئول:
دکتر حسين صمدی
سردبیر:
دکتر منوچهر حيدرپور
مدیر داخلی:
دکتر محمدعلی نصراصفهانی